The start of 2009, unless you were in the Armageddon camp, offered investors some genuine opportunities.
Equities looked attractive, for example the FTSE 100 fell below 3,600 – the high was December 1999 at 6,930 and had stood at around 6,700 as recently as June 2007.
Then the fixed interest asset class was widely tipped for exceptional returns and many commentators were still optimistic for gold.
Alongside this it seemed clear that interest rates would remain low so cash was not really a viable option and problems looked set to continue, for a while at least, for much of the commercial property sector.
Just over one year on, and just over one year further away from that absolutely horrible mess and investment messages must be clearer, right? Well, maybe not.
The “easy” returns have been made in equities – although I would also argue that investors had to be brave a year or so ago.
Who would have predicted in March 2009 that the FTSE 100 would rise by 50 per cent in the space of less than a year?
The obvious fixed interest investment story turned out to be true too. But, how long has this left to run?
The gold price recently hit an all time high too so investing after basically a ten -year bull run whatever the asset class warrants caution.
As for commercial property, this improved in the latter stages of 2009 and there could well be more positive signs for prime property going forward but there is no obvious, clear buy signal here. Interest rates are likely to remain low for some months yet as a move too soon could result in a fall back into recession and nobody would want to be responsible for that.
So, with no glaringly obvious buying signal for investors earning little on deposit what should they do?
I have commentated only on the major asset classes so far and not mentioned the likes of hedge funds, wider commodities, structured products etc.
There is a lot of “noise” made out there in terms of predictions and it is tough enough for investment professionals to sift through these minefields of information never mind the lay investor.
Many investors, wrongly, rely on past performance when looking at funds. Even if you choose the correct sector to be in, there can be a wide divergence in performance across these sectors – some facts and figures from 2009 evidence this.
The best performer over 2009 was Close Special Situations Fund, with an impressive gain of 247.3 per cent.
This fund had contrasting fortunes in 2008 with a loss of 57.26 per cent, and was one of the worst performers in that year.
The story was similar across most sectors. For example, in 2008 Melchior Asia was the worst performer within the Asia ex Japan sector, but in 2009 it was the 3rd best fund, returning 75.1 per cent.
In Europe, the worst performer in 2008 was the Invesco Perpetual European Opportunities Fund, which was the top performer in 2009 gaining 70.5 per cent.
SVM UK Opportunities Fund was second from bottom in 2008 in the UK All companies sector, but it was the top performing fund in 2009 returning 103.5 per cent.
This was not limited to equities. Within the corporate bond sector the top performer in 2009 was the Old Mutual Corporate Bond Fund which was up 35.69 per cent, in contrast with the previous year when the fund was at the bottom of the pile with a loss of 29.9 per cent. The worst fund overall in 2009 fell by 30.18 per cent and was the New Star International Property Fund.
Looking at the difference between the top and bottom performers in each sector, it was another year of huge divergence. Additionally, some funds still lost money despite the market rally.
Some examples. Most of us would think that UK equities were a good place to be last year.
This is all well and good but the difference between the best and worst performing funds in the UK All Companies Sector was a staggering 92.8 per cent.
The Scottish Value Management UK Opportunities fund returned +103.6 per cent while the Skandia UK Strategic Best Ideas returned only +10.8 per cent. A “Best Ideas” fund? In the Cautious Managed Sector, the New Star Managed Distribution Fund returned +44.7 per cent while the worst performer was MFM Tait Walker Cautious returning – 13.1 per cent – a 57.8 per cent difference!
The wide variety of returns is not just limited to equities with a difference in best and worst funds in the UK Corporate Bond sector being 37.3 per cent and the property sector 71.5 per cent!
So, if you think you know which sector to invest in going forward, I wish you luck in choosing the correct fund.
Some of this luck can be taken out of the equation by considering multi-manager or fund of funds propositions.
Leaving things to the experts does cost more, but an extra annual management charge of normally circa 0.5 per cent is a small price to pay.
The brave investor could have made a lot of money in 2009.
The sensible investor will diversify and likely still make money in 2010 as opportunities, albeit less obvious, undoubtedly exist in various sectors if you know where to look.
* Trevor Law is a director with Montpelier Group (Europe) Ltd, the privately-owned independent financial advisers located near Solihull. E-mail: tilaw@montpeliergroup.com