England unchanged but chances are slim
Jul 9 2008 By Jack Bannister
South Africa are deserved favourites to beat England and the weather in the first of four Tests, starting at Lord’s on Thursday.
They are ranked second behind Australia in the world, two ahead of England whose win against New Zealand was put into perspective when they were dropped one place.
The acid test of the respective strengths of a home side unchanged for a record sixth successive time and a pace-driven South Africa is how many England players would be selected in an eclectic team?
The only certainties would be Andrew Strauss, Kevin Pietersen and Monty Panesar, with captain Michael Vaughan a strong possibility.
Graeme Smith, Jacques Kallis, Ashwell Prince and A.B. de Villiers see off Alastair Cook, Paul Collingwood and Ian Bell in the batting. Mark Boucher ahead of Tim Ambrose is no contest, while England’s pace attack is well behind that of the tourists.
Could England afford to leave out a bowler of the calibre of Andre Nel? He will sit out this series unless one of the speed trio underperforms.
Stuart Broad is right to point out that there is no point in him, Ryan Sidebottom and Jimmy Anderson pressing to bridge the gap between their average of 85mph and the low 90s of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel.
Makhaya Ntini is in the upper 80s, but bowls a heavy ball from such a wide angle that the England batsmen set the bowling machine off centre in practice earlier this week. The first black South African to play Test cricket, he now has a record of 347 wickets in 87 games and who will ever forget his emotional response to earning two spots on the Lord’s Honours Board five years ago?
His first five-wicket haul produced a kiss of the dusty pitch and the second-innings repeat must have given the groundstaff a job to repair the missing couple of mouthfuls. Now 31, he is a hyper-active cricketer who has an indefatigable approach unequalled in world cricket.
He is a captain’s dream who will bowl all day upwind and at the wrong end and is a perfect foil to the pace of Steyn and Morkel. The low-key left arm spin of Paul Harris offers England a chink of hope if they can successfully target his role as a stock bowler used to tie down one end and thus rotate the pace trio.
Even if he gets hit, there is always Kallis, still a supreme fourth back-up seamer whose defensive line outside off stump might bore batsmen and spectators to death, but is a vital part of a bowling equation that looks better equipped to take 20 wickets than the home attack.
England are not right out of the reckoning, but need either dry, dusty pitches for Panesar – unlikely at Lord’s, Edgbaston and Headingley – or swing-friendly conditions and luck with the toss. Everything needs to fall into place, but South Africa have extra matchwinning qualities.
Another unsettling factor is the question of the unsigned England central contracts, because the authorities are threatening only a restricted release next April of players wanted by the Indian Premier League.
It hasn’t taken long for long shadows to be cast over the future of Test cricket, because the Professional Cricketers’ Association are unhappy with the England & Wales Cricket Board’s insistence that Pietersen, Flintoff and anyone wanted by India can only play for a couple of weeks because of the proposed Sri Lanka tour here.The estimate of lost revenue for any player prevented from playing in the entire IPL is £175,000 per week, and the ECB have to reduce that shortfall.
The other problem is that most of the top Sri Lanka players are on three- year IPL contracts, so with the first Test at Lord’s on May 18, there are already doubts surrounding the strength of the tourists.
As Lord’s, England’s best chance of success is to bowl first and make early inroads. Otherwise, it will be a long five days in which they will be at full stretch in all departments.
