Only an injury crisis can stop Villa

Jan 15 2008 By Pat Murphy

These are heady days at Villa Park as the prospect of qualifying for Europe next season is at last a serious one.

And not just the Uefa Cup - the Champions' League cannot be dismissed out of hand.

With Villa sixth in the table, playing a pleasing brand of fast and powerful football, there are no insuperable obstacles in the way of finishing in the top six. For that to happen, though, various matters must come to pass.

The squad, the smallest in the division, has to continue its miraculous luck in avoiding injuries. Only John Carew's absence has disrupted selection so far and now he's back at his most imposing since being signed a year ago.

Heaven knows the impact of a prolonged spell out for either Gabby Agbonlahor or Ashley Young. Agbonlahor is one of that rare breed, a young player who hasn't suffered 'second seasonitis', as he continues to frighten the daylights out of complacent defenders who think they can usher him down harmless cul-de-sacs.

Young has been a revelation. His pace burns off defences, as Villa counter-attack thrillingly. Only Manchester United and Arsenal are superior now in that area. Arsenal's Cesc Fabregas is the only player in the division with more 'assists' than Young.

So the key players must stay fit. And Villa must win the crunch games. Starting at Liverpool next Monday night. These two - along with Everton and Manchester City - are level on 39 points, vying for the fourth spot that will lead to a Champions' League spot.

Villa have 16 matches remaining to nail that one down. There is no reason why they can't win next Monday, given their confidence and Liverpool's twitchiness on and off the field.

They were lucky to win at Villa Park on the opening day of the season, as Steven Gerrard's theatrical tumble near the end to earn a dubious free kick that resulted in him scoring the winner demonstrated that current England heroes lose little in comparison with foreign prima donnas who fall down at the slightest contact.

Unlike the other three contenders for that fourth spot, Villa have no other distractions. To their intense annoyance, they went out early in the Carling and FA Cup.

Manchester City remain in the latter tournament while Everton and Liverpool are still battling away in Europe. And both Merseyside clubs are trying to balance the books, so major excursions in the January transfer window are unlikely.

That sort of exercise is no problem for Villa, with Randy Lerner more than happy to strengthen the squad.

But nobody outside the inner caucus at Villa Park has a clue about Martin O'Neill's intentions in the transfer market this month. Not one football reporter for a start. We all like to crack on that we're in the know, but not in this case. Getting a steer about new players from O'Neill is about as likely as Ricky Ponting taking Harbhajan Singh out for a few snifters.

O'Neill has always been as tight as a drum in such matters, so we can only speculate. Last January he did all his work in the final week of the month, with two key captures in Carew and Young. Given the amount of research he undertakes into the relevant player's character as well as his ability, it's reasonable to assume that any purchases will strengthen the squad.

O'Neill has earned the right to be trusted, even if he appears to treat Lerner's money as his own. The fans will just have to be patient.

It's a measure of O'Neill's stature as a manager that it could be said that Villa have over-achieved to reach sixth place. Yet, at home, they easily eclipsed Everton, ought to have beaten Manchester City out of sight, and should have got a point off Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal. Only Portsmouth gave them a cuffing at Villa Park.

And, on away travels, Villa should have picked up six points at Tottenham and Chelsea, instead of sharing 4-4 draws that may have entranced neutrals but left Villans bemoaning Marlon Harewood's costly aberration at White Hart Lane and Zat Knight's unlucky dismissal at Stamford Bridge when Villa were two up.

But you can play that 'if only' game ad nauseam. Villa are up there on merit. They haven't lost to a side yet from the lower half of the table and it's at this stage of the season that they should expect to be putting daylight between themselves and other sides with pretensions but little stability.

I can't believe that Martin Laursen won't be locked soon into a new contract and then he can carry on with getting crucial goals as well as defending heroically. Defenders such Derek Mountfield, Tony Adams and Steve Bruce helped win titles for their clubs with vital goals from set pieces and Laursen is honest enough to admit that he has missed a few this season, in addition to the six he has already scored.

The next couple of weeks will tell us much about Villa's prospects for a happy May. European qualification is long overdue. They nearly got there in 2004, only for to lose out on fifth place by goal difference on the final day.

That was at the end of David O'Leary's first season in charge.

Whatever happened to him? It didn't get any better under that Irishman. I fancy that won't be the case under another.

• Success of 2012 key to cricket tour move
  So the Zimbabwe issue is back on the agenda, as our Government ponder the wisdom of calling off the cricket tour here in 2009. It's a no-brainer, isn't it?

By all the canons of justice, yes. After all, Gordon Brown has made it clear he doesn't want to be seen in the same conference room as the despicable Robert Mugabe.

That's a welcome hawkish stance after the failed emollience of Tony Blair led to the farce of the 2003 World Cup, when England's cricketers were hung out to dry.

But the Prime Minister is even more keen on the London Olympics being a resounding success in 2012. You know how politicians love the reflected glory associated with sport.

All those gongs . . .

The International Olympic Committee would jib at our Government banning Zimbabwe from the Olympics. Mugabe would play to the gallery of international opinion, flourishing the martyr card, and several African nations would no doubt boycott London.

Brown and the London Olympics bigwigs won't want that, so Mugabe knows he can just string them along.

If his cricketers don't get the invite next year, he'll claim the moral high ground.

I wonder if the England and Wales Cricket Board might show some dynamism and declare Zimbabwe to be deserved pariahs? Wouldn't it be unusual for a sporting body to act proactively and get its Government off the hook?