Labour may not regain control of Birmingham City Council in May’s elections, but could do so in 2012. Public Affairs Correspondent Paul Dale reports.

It is no great surprise that Labour in Birmingham has begun to talk about regaining control of the city council, possibly as soon as 2012.

Eight years after being kicked out of office by a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, Labour group leader Sir Albert Bore has his eyes firmly set on the day he expects to take command once again of the city he led from 1999 to 2004.

Based on the 2010 election results, Labour could indeed scrape home in 2012 by winning the narrowest of majorities in the 120-seat council chamber.

The party won 20 seats last year.

A repeat of that at this year’s May elections and at the 2012 polls would be enough to propel Sir Albert back into power.

Although the mathematics are in favour, it is not absolutely certain that Labour will be able to get over the finishing line in 2012.

And with no city council elections in 2013, Sir Albert might have to wait until 2014 to cross the finishing line.

The issue is skewed by the possibility that Birmingham will be electing a city mayor in 2013, a position Sir Albert would like to contest.

To make matters more complicated, Tory city council leader Mike Whitby can expect to be appointed shadow mayor of Birmingham when the Localism Bill receives Royal Assent at the end of this year – a position he is guaranteed to hold until a mayoral election is held in May 2013.

When Coun Whitby becomes shadow mayor, all councillors not in the cabinet will be reduced to a scrutiny role with their powers restricted to little more than passing the mayor’s budget.

The prospect is deeply unsatisfactory for Sir Albert, who could end up in charge of the largest political grouping in the council chamber after May 2012, but powerless to overthrow Coun Whitby.

Clearly, the governance of Birmingham would be made easier if the majority of councillors and the mayor were from the same party, but that is unlikely to be the case.

Labour’s success at last year’s civic elections was due in part to a sharply higher turnout with both the local and General Election held on the same day.

Coun Whitby and his Liberal Democrat deputy Paul Tilsley will be pinning their hopes on some Labour supporters staying at home in 2011, but even then the national political picture may work against them.

The Barnsley Central parliamentary by-election, where the Liberal Democrat candidate slumped to sixth place beaten by the British National Party, will not have raised the hopes of Lib Dem campaigners in Birmingham.